Shenja manipulimi tek sondazhi i Balkanweb.

Sot (e shtune 18 prill 2015) Balkanweb, media online me e vizituar ne shqiperi, publikoi ‘Sondazh 2015’ qe do jete nje sondazh qe do mbuloje zgjedhjet lokale per cdo qytet. Votimi funksionon me IP-ne e perdoruesit dhe nje perdorues nuk mund te votoje me shume se nje here.

Si shume te tjere, isha dyshues per korrektesine dhe integritetin e ketij procesi dhe vendosa te regjistroj cdo minute te dhenat e sondazhit per te monitoruar mos kishte ndonje anomali. Nuk zgjati shume dhe brenda dy oresh pati levizje jo normale te numrit te votave. Grafiku si me poshte:

Dy jane shqetesimet e mia paraprake:

1. I pari, dhe me i dukshmi eshte rritja e votave te Veliaj prej afro 190 votave brenda dy minutave (80 vota ne minute) (8:21 PM dhe 8:22 PM) kur mesatarisht ai rritej me 1.7 vota ne minute.

2. Rritja e Kosoves eshte teper lineare. Kjo mund te jete dhe thjesht rastesi, por duke pare qe Bojaxhi/Veliaj kane variacione te lehta (dhe te dhenat duken me ‘njerezore’), Kosova duket si i vendosur me vizore, si nje script qe eshte programuar te votoje ne menyre rastesore mesatarisht rreth 2-3 vota ne minute. Por ky eshte thjesht nje spekulim dhe skemi si ta vertetojme.

Keto ishin dyshimet paraprake, dhe te dhenat e mevonshme mund te na thone dicka me teper por cfaredo qe te kete ndodhur ne lidhje me rritjen e Veliaj, nese ka qene sulm i jashtem apo nese vete Balkanweb ka futur duart, e ben sondazhin te pavlefshem.

Fajlin excel me RAW data mund ta aksesoni ketu:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R7YxKZ3V74pgNZp7PMm8TkB5vsbpCxpS7xk0hgjJlQE/pubhtml

AZHORNIM

DITA E TRETE: 20 prill 2015

Sipas te dhenave, Bojaxhi kalon Veliaj gjate mengjesit, dhe me pas Veliaj merr deri ne 309 vota ne minute.

Grafiku total  votave:

Numri i votave te fituara per cdo minute per secilin kandidat.

Raw Data te dites se trete: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_90EXKNLmizv1aZghOgdxBO6RCNQVm5wFgQsxRrpsYo/pubhtml

PHP dhe MySQL per fillestare (e-book)

AutoAuto Albania: Aplikacion android qe kontrollon gjobat falas.

AutoAuto Albania eshte nje aplikacion per Android OS qe lehteson kontrollimin e  gjobave dhe kundravajtjeve rrugore.

Lehtesimi kryesor i ketij aplikacioni qendron ne faktin qe te dhenat identifikuese te mjetit (targa dhe shasia) shkruhen vetem njehere dhe keshtu perdoruesit mund te kontrollojne per gjoba vetem me nje shtypje te shpejte butoni, ne cdo moment dhe kudo.

Instaloni aplikacionin nepermjet Google Play duke klikuar ketu.

Blinkist, nje sherbim i shkelqyer per te lexuar libra te permbledhur ne 15 minuta.

Blinkist eshte nje sherbim i cili ka te listuar libra te perzgjedhur nga fusha te ndryshme ne forme te permbledhur qe mund te lexohen per rreth 15 minuta. Blinkist, ka gjithashtu dhe aplikacion per iOS dhe Android.

Per me teper: Blinkist

Video:

Harte e lekundjeve sizmiologjike te Republikes se Shqiperise per periudhen 1967-2014. (heatmap)

Aty ku eshte e kuqe shpeshtia dhe intesiteti i lekundjeve ka qene me e larte.

Periudha e te dhenave :1967-2014

Burimi i te dhenave: USGS (U.S. Geological survey)

Grafiku: lexoj.com

f(mind)

[It is possible that] the human mind (in the realm of pure mathematics) is equivalent to a finite machine that, however, is unable to understand completely its own functioning.

(Gödel 1995, pp. 309)

If intrigued, click to download:

 

Still thirsty?

There’s an MIT OpenCourseWare for Gödel, Escher, Bach.

Hacker School banning “feigned surprise” is absolutely brilliant

The biggest insight I’ve had as a programmer is just how often other programmers are portraying false confidence. My natural approach to problem-solving is Socratic, feeling out different ideas and taking small, well-supported steps. Compare and contrast that with making gigantic pronouncements full of bravado. Writing software is inherently an exercise in managing complexity, which is best done with caution.

The best developers I’ve worked with were willing to admit when they didn’t know something. Of course they could learn quickly. If you meet an arrogant developer who pretends to know everything, be careful. To them, their ego is more important than your software. An insecure person who mixes up their self-worth with their programming ability can be very unpleasant to work with. Sadly, some workplaces and development teams reward bombastic claims made with absolute certainty, even on complex topics.

If you have ability and a strong work ethic, people will notice. You will learn a lot from their reaction. If they react by treating with you with respect, they have strong character. If they react by taking every opportunity to belittle and undermine you, they perceive you as a threat to them. If you aren’t prone to petty jealousy and spiteful thinking, it will be difficult to empathize with people who are. Sadly, you must handle these threats. Declaring yourself “above it all” only makes you an easy target, especially once you gain more responsiblity and therefore power.

“Feigned surprise” (when someone gasps and says something like: “you don’t even know about monads?”) is a method of belittling someone and lording your superiority over them. Every organization says about itself, “we don’t have any rude, unpleasant people here. We’re different!” And during the interview process those people are hidden away. Usually you can only find out the truth by actually working there. But by banning feigned surprise, Hacker School strikes a real blow against unplesant, unproductive behavior, and drives away toxic people. That is a strong signal that Hacker School is the sort of place where someone can program and collaborate in a peaceful atmosphere, and therefore accomplish a great deal.

by Dennis Cahillane, brooklynoptimist.com

WHY NOT TO ENGAGE IN STANDARD DEBATES/FOLLOW NEWS

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

This graph shows the relative role of independent factors in a system, with among, say 30 identifiable factors, 97% of the variations can be attributed to the first 2 factors (a system with “fat tails” will be even more concentrated with 99.999% coming from one single factor). The remaining 28 factors are chickens**t. The graph presents a statistical view of the “less is more” argument, and why one should not follow the news for, in a given month, “low loads” represent 99.99% of the conversation and .01% of the contribution.

If you are right on factor 1 (& possibly 2), the rest is irrelevant. But the problem is that those trained in debate will drag you into factors 3 through 99, just to distract from the core issue.

I have decided to avoid Cambridge and Oxford Union debates, those discussion with people trained in argument by debating societies. The Oxbridge system of “covering all sides of an issue” drives you to the irrelevant and drowns your Factor 1 argument. If you do things right you should have “only one argument”, which clashes with this culture.

(This graph also explains in statistical terms the “lady complains too much”, or why a “balanced” view presenting drawbacks is everything but balanced.)

Sublime-Translator, translate while you’re typing.

Since I love and (ab)use 24/7 the Sublime Text editor, I wrote SublimeTranslator, a simple plugin to quickly translate text in any language using Google. If you’re not using Sublime Text yet, you’re missing out a lot.

Here’s how the plugin works: write anything you want to translate, be it a word or a sentence, then enter a language code (en, fr, es, it, sq, etc) to translate text into that language, and then press the CTRL + SHIFT + l shortcut, and the text you just typed will translate into that language.

If you want to use it, here’s the plugin’s page.

Chomsky On Postmodernism

“There are lots of things I don’t understand — say, the latest debates over whether neutrinos have mass or the way that Fermat’s last theorem was (apparently) proven recently. But from 50 years in this game, I have learned two things: (1) I can ask friends who work in these areas to explain it to me at a level that I can understand, and they can do so, without particular difficulty; (2) if I’m interested, I can proceed to learn more so that I will come to understand it. Now Derrida, Lacan, Lyotard, Kristeva, etc. — even Foucault, whom I knew and liked, and who was somewhat different from the rest — write things that I also don’t understand, but (1) and (2) don’t hold: no one who says they do understand can explain it to me and I haven’t a clue as to how to proceed to overcome my failures. That leaves one of two possibilities: (a) some new advance in intellectual life has been made, perhaps some sudden genetic mutation, which has created a form of ‘theory’ that is beyond quantum theory, topology, etc., in depth and profundity; or (b) … I won’t spell it out.” – Chomsky